This year my rankings will be in the form of tiers. Predicting exact stats this early is hit and miss. Rankings can be more accurate when sorted by tiers of players and it’s a system I have been using for years. It’s also much easier to compare players across positions. Players will also have certain tags that may hurt or help their value such as “injury prone” or “consistent”. Players in the same tier have similar value and ultimately it’s up to personal preference as to who is the best in the group.
Tier 1
Aaron Rodgers
Tags: Consistent
What is there to say about Aaron Rodgers? He should be the consensus #1 quarterback this year. He is a safe pick and has been putting up numbers for years.
Tom Brady
Tags: Consistent
Tom Brady threw for over 5,200 yards last year and still only had Wes Welker to rely upon at receiver. Gronkowski and Hernandez played huge parts and now they added Brandon Lloyd and a plethora of other receivers. I don’t see Brady slowing down.
Drew Brees
Tags: Consistent
Notice how all 3 of the top tier players are consistent? That’s what you want out of your top guy. Brees should have another great year, even though the loss of Sean Payton might drop his stats a little bit compared to the usual.
Tier 2
Cam Newton
Tags: Boom/Bust
By statistical projection Killa Cam would have been in the 1st tier. However, he’s still only got one year under his belt and there is still a lot of risk involved. He has a ton of potential, but he could also regress like Vince Young did. High risk/high reward pick.
Michael Vick
Tags: Injury Prone
Vick will be Vick. He’ll give you some phenomenal games and some average games. And you better be planning on him missing at least a couple of games.
Matthew Stafford
Tags: Injury Prone
Stafford had a tremendous year but let’s not put him with the fantasy elite just yet. He’s still very much an injury prone player so he is a bit of a risk. And of course Calvin is on the Madden cover and yes I do believe in the curse, come at me. I still expect a very good season though but a risky pick.
Tier 3
Eli Manning
Tags: None
I really can’t call Eli Manning consistent despite 2 Superbowl victories. This 3rd tier group is a pretty big drop off from the top 2 but they are a bit “safer”.
Tony Romo
Tags: Injury Prone
Tony Romo always seems to be a borderline star but he can never quite put it all together. This season looks bright for Romo as the offense will be settled in and 100% healthy and ready to go. Of course, I say something along those lines every year.
Matt Ryan
Tags: Consistent
Matt Ryan is consistent which is certainly a plus. The problem is, his numbers aren’t that great. He’s got a new OC so that could change but he’s pretty much already reached his peak.
Tier 4
Phillip Rivers
Tags: Boom/Bust
What happened to Rivers last year? He’s adamant about not being hurt but it’s still very questionable. He could have a great bounce back year or he could continue down the path of this inexplicable regression.
Josh Freeman
Tags: Sleeper
I like Freeman to have a bit of a bounce back year. The Bucs as a whole got a lot better this off-season and Vincent Jackson and Doug Martin should help Freeman out a lot. He’s a bit of a sleeper.
Matt Schaub
Tags: Injury Prone
Well, Schaub got heart after a streak of being relatively healthy. He’s still a big injury risk but you can always count on him for some monster games as long as he has a healthy Andre Johnson.
Ben Roethlisberger
Tags: Injury Prone
Big Ben is injury prone but he tends to play through a lot of those injuries. The problem is his play suffers as a result so for a couple weeks of the year you have to decide whether to start a hobbled Big Ben or some hot waiver wire pick-up.
Tier 5
Joe Flacco
Tags: Consistent
Like Matt Ryan, Flacco has never really taken the next step. I don’t see it happening this year either. At least you’ll know what you get with him and that is a solid #2 fantasy quarterback.
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Tags: None
Fitzpatrick is another solid back-up option. He’ll give you some solid games and is a good starter when he has a good match up. He’s just not consistent week to week and has limited upside.
Jay Cutler
Tags: None
Yes, the Bears did add Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery but I’m not as high on Cutler as some are. His offensive line is still shaky and he lost “offensive genius” Mike Martz. He should have a bounce back year but I doubt he puts up 4500 yards again.
Andrew Luck
Tags: None
Andrew Luck and RG3 are both in the same tier and are interchangeable. Luck will be the better passer but RG3 will make up for it with his rushing yards. Despite how good of a prospect he is, it’s hard to get too excited since the Colts will still be awful.
Robert Griffin III
Tags: Injury Prone
I like RG3 more than Cam Newton but I’m not expecting anywhere near a Cam Newton type rookie year for RG3. People also need to pump their breaks on his rushing projections. Yes, he’s a good athlete but he’s still very much a pocket passer. He’s also pretty frail and we’ll have to see how he stands up to NFL hits in the open field.
Peyton Manning
Tags: Boom/Bust, Injury Prone
Do people really think Peyton Manning is a top 10 fantasy quarterback right now? Maybe I’m wrong but I just don’t see it. He’s still very fragile and doesn’t have much to work with in Denver. Not to mention their offensive line is one of the worst in the league. Risky pick.
Tier 6
Sam Bradford
Tags: Injury Prone
Remember when people wanted to crown Bradford after his rookie year? Now granted he doesn’t have much help around him but he’s still a dink-and-dunk passer. It’s hard to get excited about his projections this year even though the Rams have tried to surround him with better talent.
Andy Dalton
Tags: None
Andy Dalton had a surprising rookie year but much of the credit should go to A.J. Green. Dalton has limited upside and at his best I can’t see him getting much better. He’s a dink and dunk guy who will occasionally throw one up for Green. Others are high on him, I’m not.
Alex Smith
Tags: Injury Prone
Alex Smith led the 49ers to the NFC Championship game but fantasy wise he was still very average. He threw just 5 interceptions last year and we all know that won’t happen again.
Matt Cassel
Tags: None
Matt Cassel is such a bad fantasy quarterback I have no clue why people draft him every year with the hope that he can magically explode and have a great season. Expect much of the same, average at best, performances from Cassel this season.
