This year my rankings will be in the form of tiers. Predicting exact stats this early is hit and miss. Rankings can be more accurate when sorted by tiers of players and it’s a system I have been using for years. It’s also much easier to compare players across positions. Players will also have certain tags that may hurt or help their value such as “injury prone” or “consistent”. Players in the same tier have similar value and ultimately it’s up to personal preference as to who is the best in the group.
Tier 1
Ray Rice
Tags: Consistent
Ray Rice has been one of my favorite fantasy backs, in general as well as I loved watching him at Rutgers, and we know what we can expect from him. Barring an unexpected injury, Rice will push double digit touchdowns and be a PPR monster.
Arian Foster
Tags: Injury Prone
I correctly predicted Foster would get hurt last year, however he still managed to have a fantastic season. Even with his durability issues and Ben Tate stealing some carries he can still be one of the best fantasy backs.
LeSean McCoy
Tags: Consistent
I doubt McCoy will score 17 touchdowns again but he should still have a fine fantasy year. Looks for his touchdowns and carries to fall but he should receive a nice boost in receptions.
Tier 2
Chris Johnson
Tags: Consistent
Chris Johnson had a bad year but I fully expect him to return to form this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was the #1 fantasy back at the end of the season. He’s in shape now and has looked great in off-season practices.
Darren McFadden
Tags: Injury Prone
Darren McFadden is another guy who I predict will have a huge year. The talent is there but so are the numerous injuries. Without Michael Bush, McFadden should get more goal-line touches which greatly increases his fantasy value.
DeMarco Murray
Tags: Sleeper, Injury Prone
I was a huge fan of Murray in last years draft and he had a tremendous rookie year. His problem has always been injuries but he should be healthy and well conditioned heading into this season. He could really be in for a breakout year.
Tier 3
Ryan Mathews
Tags: Injury Prone, Boom/Bust
There’s a lot of hype around Mathews this year but I’d let someone else in your league draft him. He’s too big of a risk even if he is going to be a workhorse for the Chargers.
Maurice Jones-Drew
Tags: Injury Prone, Boom/Bust
MJD’s contract situation could get ugly. We all saw what happened to Chris Johnson last year after missing time due to contract disputes. MJD is also near the beginning of his decline and the missed time could increase the chance of a serious injury.
Matt Forte
Tags: Consistent
Matt Forte has never been a touchdown fiend and he won’t be again this year with Michael Bush in the picture. However, he’s been very consistent throughout his career and he looked great before getting hurt last year.
Trent Richardson
Tags: None
I love Trent Richardson but some may be getting carried away with their projections. Let’s remember that the Browns have a poor offense and while he will be the workhorse and he is a huge addition, he can’t do it all by himself.
Tier 4
Marshawn Lynch
Tags: None
How can you not like Marshawn? He had his best season last year and while I don’t expect him to better those numbers, there’s no reason why he can’t at least get close to repeating them.
Steven Jackson
Tags: Injury Prone
Steven Jackson is on the decline and now the Rams have finally drafted a back-up running back that could steal some of his carries away. He’ll still produce but he has limited upside.
Michael Turner
Tags: Consistent
Turner might barely crack the 1000 yard mark this season. He’s been worn down a lot these past few seasons and Koetter wants to get Jason Snelling and Jacquizz Rodgers more involved. Turner should still be the primary goal-line back however.
Ahmad Bradshaw
Tags: Injury Prone
Bradshaw had a bit of a down year last year mostly due to injuries and the play of Brandon Jacobs. Jacobs is gone but he’s been replaced by a better player in David Wilson. Bradshaw should get the majority of goal-line work however so he still has pretty good fantasy value.
Jamaal Charles
Tags: Injury Prone, Boom/Bust
Jamaal Charles looks healthy and should have a solid year. The only thing holding him back is Peyton Hillis which will undoubtedly rob him of a few touchdowns.
Tier 5
Doug Martin
Tags: None
Doug Martin and LeGarette Blount will likely be splitting carries but my bet is on Martin getting more touches. Josh Freeman also loves to check-down and Martin is an excellent receiver. He’s a huge sleeper in PPR leagues.
Fred Jackson
Tags: None
Fred Jackson is an excellent back but all the news out of Buffalo is that C.J. Spiller is ready to take over the #1 spot. He’s earned nothing but praise so Fred Jackson’s role will likely be reduced.
Jonathan Stewart/DeAngelo Williams
Tags: None
These guys are about even in my book. It comes down to preference. DeAngelo is likely to score more touchdowns and finish with more rushing yards, but Stewart is used a lot more as a receiver.
Frank Gore
Tags: Injury Prone
Gore is still the lead back in San Fran but with Kendall Hunter, Lamichael James, Brandon Jacobs, and Anthony Dixon on the roster it’s hard to imagine him going over the 1000 yard mark. Not too mention he still struggles to stay healthy.
Darren Sproles
Tags: Consistent
What a nice surprise Sproles was last year. I don’t think he can reproduce those numbers but he’ll still be a very solid all-around contributor.
Tier 6
Reggie Bush
Tags: Injury Prone
Reggie Bush is the starting running back but he’s struggled to stay healthy his whole career. This won’t change now and Daniel Thomas and Lamar Miller are patiently waiting to make their mark.
Beanie Wells
Tags: Injury Prone
Beanie Wells is going to be the starter heading into the season but he’s also struggled to stay healthy. Ryan Williams is also back and healthy and will take some of Beanie’s carries away.
Willis McGahee
Tags: Injury Prone
McGahee is old and a bit run down but he’s still going to be the #1 back with no real threat to his job. He should put up solid numbers.
Mark Ingram
Tags: Sleeper
Mark Ingram is healthy and let’s not forget he’s still a very talented back despite an average rookie season. Double digit touchdowns are not out of the question.
Tier 7
Cedric Benson
Tags: None
The Packers just signed Cedric Benson and he looked surprisingly good in his pre-season debut. He’s definitely their #1 back moving forward.
Stevan Ridley
Tags: Sleeper
Ridley and Vereen will split carries in New England but Ridley will be the main ball carrier. Ridley also figures to see the bulk of goal-line carries. The problem is the Patriots just don’t run the ball very much and Vereen might end up over-taking him at some point in the season.
C.J. Spiller
Tags: None
C.J. Spiller probably had his best training camp yet but you still never know what the Bills will actually do. Every year we wait for him to get more touches. I’ll believe it when I see it.
Shonn Greene
Tags: None
Shonn Greene is the starter as of right now for the Jets but he’s on very thin ice. Bilal Powell is already getting reps on 3rd down and I wouldn’t be surprised if he starts over Greene at some point this year.
Isaac Redman
Tags: None
Rashard Mendenhall should be out for at least 6 weeks which gives Redman some fantasy value. However, he’s a rental and only worth a late round pick.
Ben Tate
Tags: None
Tate is a very talented back, it’s a shame he has to play behind Arian Foster. He still gets plenty of looks though and Foster has had trouble staying healthy at times which gives Tate some nice upside and is a must-own handcuff.
Tier 8
Felix Jones
Tags: Injury Prone
Felix Jones will be the #2 back in Dallas as well as the kick returner. DeMarco Murray is injury prone so he’s worth a shot late but Jones is just as brittle.
Ryan Williams
Tags: Sleeper
Ryan Williams is back and ready to make his mark on the NFL. He’s a very talented back and he’s only got the injury prone Beanie Wells ahead of him on the depth chart. He’s a late round sleeper with upside.
Donald Brown
Tags: None
Donald Brown will start for the Colts this year so he should see plenty of touches. The problem is that he’s just an average runner and the Colts offensive line and offense in general is pretty bad.
Kevin Smith
Tags: Sleeper
Kevin Smith is the best back on the Lions roster. Best’s durability issues aside he just isn’t a very good running back. However, Best and LeShoure are still in the mix so Smith’s upside is limited.
David Wilson
Tags: Sleeper
David Wilson is another late round back with upside. He’s very talented and he plays behind an injury prone running back.
