Archive for NFL Picks

2012 NFL Picks: Week 2

September 15, 2012 No comments

Hit on my big play with the Texans last week but unfortunately the Bills and Matt Stafford’s ineptness cost me 4 units. Not a lot of enticing games on the schedule for me but my trend applies to quite a few games this week.

Saints -2.5 (-110)
Bet 1.10 to win 1.00

I was pretty shocked that the Redskins beat the Saints on the road despite being a huge RG3 fan. The Saints are usually a great home team but they fell a little bit short. Knowing Brees and the Saints, they don’t lose 2 games in a row often. I expect them to bounce back with a big win on the road against divisional foes. The Panthers are also incredibly overrated in my opinion.

Texans -7 (-110)
Bet 1.10 to win 1.00

Well I’m just going to keep riding the Texans. They demolished the Dolphins although the Dolphins practically handed them the game at half time. Still they are much better than the Jaguars and while Gabbert has improved, MJD is still rusty and they are missing some key players for this game.

Falcons/Broncos Over 51 (-110)
Bet 1.10 to win 1.00

This has the makings of a shoot-out which is why I like the over despite it being over 50 points. Peyton Manning is going to torch the Falcons secondary that has lost stud corner Brent Grimes, meanwhile, Matt Ryan and his aerial attack will be forced to keep pace so they should be able to move the ball as well. It’s also on prime time and the quarterbacks will undoubtedly be hyped up. I can’t see them falling flat.

Trend Plays

Chiefs +3
Ravens +3
Broncos +3
Colts +3

Record: 2-3
Total: -1.20

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2012 NFL Picks: Week 1

September 4, 2012 No comments

It’s time for some regular season betting action. Last year was pretty successful as a I finished up over 14 units. I’m hoping to be more consistent with my week to week picks this year, but hey, anything can happen. Here are my plays to kickoff the season:

Bills +3 (-110)
Bet 2.20 to win 2.00

I am really struggling to come up with a reason as to why the Jets are favored in this game. The Bills are the better team and the Jets have been laughably bad in the pre-season. Sure it’s pre-season but the starters looked bad, I mean they barely scored a touchdown. This should be an easy win for the Bills but at the very least they’ll cover the 3 points.

Texans -8.5 (-110)
Bet 3.30 to win 3.00

Hurry and get on this before the odds-makers realize how bad the Dolphins are. The Texans should crush them easily. The Dolphins may be the worst team in the NFL at the moment and it shouldn’t be long before we start seeing spreads of 10 and 14 against them.

Lions -7 (Even)
Bet 2.00 to win 2.00

The Lions are a much more talented team than the Rams and they are at home in this contest. They should have no problem beating the Rams by a touchdown. How is St. Louis going to block one of the best front 7′s in football? Sam Bradford won’t have time to pick apart Detroit’s below average secondary and he’s a dink-and-dunk quarterback anyway.

Ravens -5.5 (-110)
Bet 1.10 to win 1.00

Some of these opening lines seem too easy. I’ll regret saying this after I blow all these picks but am I to believe that the Ravens can’t beat the Bengals at home by a touchdown? The Bengals are fake. They over-achieved last year and I don’t trust them. While the Bengals looked shaky in pre-season, the Ravens looked good. Notably, Joe Flacco and Torrey Smith looked like much improved players and I expect their good play to continue into the regular season.

Raiders +100
Bet 1.00 to win 1.00

I’ll take the Raiders straight up in the contest over the Chargers. The Raiders always come out with a lot of energy and they are healthy while the Chargers are dealing with some injuries. I don’t think Rivers is as great as he once was so it’s not like he can just take over the match-up. In fact, if there’s anyone that will take over this match-up it’s Darren McFadden. He’s easily one of the best backs in the league when healthy and the Chargers defense has some holes in it. I like the Raiders as long as McFadden is healthy and ready to go.

Closer to kickoff I’ll have my usual trend plays (backing public underdogs) that went 35-23-3 last year and 121-89-7 over the past 4 seasons.

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2012 NFL Futures

August 29, 2012 No comments

It’s time to start another year of NFL picks. There’s nothing I enjoy more than making money watching something I love, well maybe other than visiting Party Bingo. I’ll be looking at a couple of team props this year after a clean sweep last year.

Cardinals Under 7 Wins (-190)
Bet 1.90 to win 1.00

Even in a weak division I can’t see the Cardinals winning 7 games. Their offensive line is garbage, but it doesn’t matter anyway because their quarterbacks are even worse. You can’t win without a quarterback in this league.

Panthers Under 7.5 Wins (+110)
Bet 1.00 to win 1.10

I liked the Panthers last year, a lot, however I’m expecting a bit of a sophomore slump this year. Cam Newton’s 2nd half numbers weren’t quite as impressive and the NFC South is still a very tough division.

Bengals Under 8 Wins (-140)
Bet 2.80 to win 2.00

This almost seems too easy. The Bengals won 9 games last year but it was fluky imo. I still don’t trust Andy Dalton to consistently put up points and I’d be very surprised if they finish over .500 again in that division.

Jets Under 8.5 Wins (-180)
Bet 1.80 to win 1.00

Like I said earlier you can’t win without a quarterback and the Jets don’t have one. I expect Mark Sanchez to lose his job at some point this season to Tim Tebow. The magic will probably run out though and even Tebow can’t save the pathetic Jets offense.

Bucs Over 6 Wins (-135)
Bet 2.70 to win 2.00

The Bucs won just 4 games last year but they are a much improved team. I definitely think that they can win at least 2 more games after all of their free agent acquisitions and good draft picks.

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2011 NFL Picks Season Over

February 16, 2012 No comments

Just wanted to get a quick update it in now that the season is over. Failed pretty hard with my Superbowl pick. I did not see that coming at all. However, the rookie of the year awards we’re announced and I hit on both of them. Overall, an average season but the pre-season picks really helped me out.

Season Picks Record: 49-50-5
Units: -2.35

Pre-Season Picks Record: 5-1
Units: +17.00

Total Record: 54-51-5
Units: +14.65

And that’s it for this seasons picks. Stick around for some in-depth draft info!

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Superbowl Pick

February 1, 2012 No comments

Didn’t do so great in the divisional round and wasn’t confident with any pick in the championship games. However, I am very very confident in my Superbowl pick.

My pre-season picks have all turned out well however. I won with the Falcons under 10.5 (+1 unit), Panthers over 4.5 wins (+5 units) and Chiefs under 7.5 (+1 unit). Clean sweep of my team W/L predictions. My rookie picks look good as well. Mark Ingram likely won’t get it, but Cam Newton is a lock and Von Miller is in a tight race with Aldon Smith. He’s a more complete player so I expect him to win. That should put me up 10 more units.

Superbowl Pick

New England Patriots -3 (+100)
Bet 3.00 to win 3.00

I LOVE the Patriots and it’s a lock in my mind that they will win. The NFL likes to take advantage of storylines imo and there’s so many angles supporting the Patriots in this one. Here’s a look:

1. The Patriots are out for revenge! Yes, a re-match of what was dubbed the greatest Superbowl ever but now the Patriots are out to avenge their loss. The Giants ruined their perfect season. Want more revenge? The Giants beat the Patriots this year too. How often do the Patriots roll over and get beaten by teams twice in one season? I believe Brady/Belichick are 11-2 when facing a team they lost to earlier in the year.

2. The passing of Robert Kraft’s wife. They already mentioned it after the Pats won the AFCCG and I guarantee you it will be mentioned several times if the Pats do in fact win. The players could be playing harder just for him as well (though they should be playing hard anyways).

3. The Giants have nothing going for them. They made it this far but what is so intriguing about the Giants? Eli Manning? Many have already cemented his status as elite, he doesn’t need another Superbowl to prove it. I just can’t see another major storyline playing out if the Giants win.

4. The money is on the Giants. Just when you think all is going well, that’s when Vegas strikes. Nearly 2/3 bets are on the Giants +3 yet the line has stayed constant. Why? Because either a) Vegas is attracting more and more money on the Giants to capitalize even more, or b) The sharps (big players with inside info) are all on the Patriots. I’ve learned a lot of things over the years and one of them is that you can use Vegas to your advantage in many different ways. I think that applies here.

Now people love to point out that the Patriots defense is awful. That is true, but they’ve got some players back for their playoff run. Their secondary is still bad, but they made it this far with that group. Are the Giants really an elite offense that will tear them apart? I say no. They are definitely not on par with the Saints and Packers in that regard. While it is a weakness, it’s not going to be the deciding factor.

I may be wrong, but I doubt it. This just seems like a lock to me and is probably my favorite picks since the over on the Panthers win total.

Season Record: 49-49-5
Units: +0.65

Futures Record: 3-0
Units: +7.00

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