Tag Archive for 2011

2011 Fantasy Football TE Rankings

August 30, 2011 2 comments

1. Antonio Gates – San Diego Chargers – Bye Week 6

2010 Points: 134

2011 Projections: 80 receptions, 1100 yards, 10 TD’s

2011 Points: 170

Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: Low

Analysis:

Antonio Gates has to be the #1 TE again this year. He’s incredibly consistent as he hasn’t caught less than 8 TD’s since his rookie year. He’s being slowed down a bit by another injury but he should be ready for the regular season and he should be in for a monster season.

2. Dallas Clark – Indianapolis Colts – Bye Week 11

2010 Points: 51

2011 Projections: 85 receptions, 950 yards, 8 TD’s

2011 Points: 143

Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: Low

Analysis:

Dallas Clark is another TE who should bounce back after being injured. I don’t think he’ll catch 100 passes again since Peyton will have all of his weapons available. Austin Collie should take away some of Clarks receptions as he himself is a PPR beast. Still Clark is a very good option at TE for consistent production.

3. Jason Witten – Dallas Cowboys – Bye Week 5

2010 Points: 146

2011 Projections: 90 receptions, 1050 yards, 6 TD’s

2011 Points: 141

Injury Risk: Very Low
Bust Potential: Very Low

Analysis:

It’s amazing that in a season where his starting QB got hurt and we saw the emergence of Dez Bryant, Witten finished the year as the #1 ranked fantasy TE. He also caught a career high 9 TD passes. He’s consistent so we know what to expect. The only thing that is unknown is his TD total which has varied a lot through his career.

4. Vernon Davis – San Francisco 49ers – Bye Week 9

2010 Points: 129

2011 Projections: 65 receptions, 850 yards, 8 TD’s

2011 Points: 133

Injury Risk: Low
Bust Potential: Low

Analysis:

Vernon Davis finally broke out 2 years ago and has been tearing it up ever since with back-to-back 900+ yard seasons. He has yet to play with a consistent QB and he won’t again this year. Still, you expect Harbaugh to use Davis as much as possible in the passing game.

5. Jermichael Finley – Green Bay Packers – Bye Week 8

2010 Points: 34

2011 Projections: 70 receptions, 900 yards, 7 TD’s

2011 Points: 132

Injury Risk: High
Bust Potential: Medium

Analysis:

Finley has the potential to put up monster numbers. He’s a great pass catcher and he plays in an explosive offense. The problem is he can’t stay healthy. He’s been in the league 3 years now and has yet to play a full 16 game season. He’s risky but if he stays healthy he’ll produce for you.

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NFL Futures Picks

August 8, 2011 4 comments

Time to get the betting season underway. I’m still deciding whether or not I should pick some pre-season games. We’ll see though. Here are some player/team props I like this year.

Atlanta Falcons Under 10.5 Wins (-145)
Bet 1.45 to win 1.00

I’m a Falcon fan so I know I’ll catch some flak for this. I know people say “don’t bet against your team” but I don’t see why not? Sure, I’m breaking some unwritten code but I know my team more than any other team in the NFL. I don’t think they can win 11 games this year. The Falcons won 13 last year with no significant injuries and a favorable schedule. They won’t be so lucky again this year and could face some really tough teams. Not to mention the whole NFC South got so much better. I project 9-10 wins max, which is still a solid season.

Carolina Panthers Over 4.5 Wins (-130)
Bet 6.50 to win 5.00

Yup, 5 units on this one. I don’t think I have ever been so sure of a pick before. No, I’m not secretly a Panthers fan either.  The Panthers won 2 games last year but it was mostly because they didn’t have a QB and suffered through TONS of injuries. They have a lot of talented players and even though I don’t think Cam Newton will ultimately succeed in the NFL, he can definitely lead the Panthers to at least 5 wins. There’s this NFC South trend that is 8 years strong now. The team that finishes last in the division follows it up with a playoff berth the next year. Most recently, the Bucs bucked this trend but finished with an 10-6 record which in most years is good enough to get you in the post season. Let’s take a look at this trend…

2002 Panthers went from 7-9 to 11-5 in 2003
2003 Falcons went from 5-11 to 11-5 in 2004
2004 Bucs went from 5-11 to 11-5 in 2005
2005 Saints went from 3-13 to 10-6 in 2006
2006 Bucs went from 4-12 to 9-7 in 2007
2007 Falcons went from 4-12 to 11-5 in 2008
2008 Saints went from 8-8 to 13-3 in 2009
2009 Bucs went from 3-13 to 10-6 in 2010
2010 Panthers go from 2-14 to ???

These are some pretty dramatic turnarounds and no one sees them coming. I’m just saying… look out for the Panthers this year!

Kansas City Chiefs Under 7.5 Wins (-105)
Bet 1.05 to win 1.00

I think the Chiefs are a fake team. They won 10 games last year but had a soft schedule. They got a few lucky wins, the Chargers unexpectedly struggled, and they just didn’t look like a playoff team. They we’re blown out by the Ravens in the playoffs and it’s not like the Ravens we’re anything special. This year their schedule is much tougher. Seriously, their 2nd half of the season includes games @NE, vs PIT, @CHI, @NYJ and vs GB. That’s a brutal stretch of games. Plus the Chargers and Raiders will be tough divisional opponents. I really don’t think they win 8 games.

Mark Ingram to win OROY
Bet 1.00 to win 6.00

Cam Newton to win OROY
Bet 1.00 to win 5.50

One of these guys will win it. Ingram because he’s a beast and while I don’t expect Cam Newton to win it based on statistics, he might based on wins. Think of a Vince Young type of year when he won the OROY.

Von Miller to win DROY
Bet 1.00 to win 5.50

LB’ers always win the defensive rookie of the year award and Miller is the best LB’er in this class. He’ll get his tackles and will probably have a healthy amount of sacks as well. He should be able to win this.

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Fantasy Football Stock Up/Down August 4th

August 4, 2011 No comments

More updates. Expect a big rankings update this weekend.

Stock Up

Ray Rice

Ok, so I already loved Rice heading into this season and now McGahee and McClain are out of the picture. Looks like it will be the Ray Rice show in Baltimore. He may be my #2 back this year.

Mike Tolbert

Looks like Tolbert will become the Chargers 3rd down back with Sproles gone and should be pretty heavily utilized in the offense. Good for Tolbert, bad for Matthews.

Kyle Orton

Orton was named the Broncos starter. I doubt he holds onto the job for long but he’s an average fantasy starter thats capable of being your #2 QB.

Roy Helu/Tim Hightower

Torain is hurt so that really hurts him in the 3 RB race for the starting role. Torain won’t be completely eliminated but right now the slight edge has to go to Helu or Hightower.

Patrick Crayton

Patrick Crayton is the Chargers #2 WR at the moment but I expect him to be unseated by my favorite rookies, Vincent Brown, soon. As of now, Crayton is the guy you want, but keep a close eye on this situation.

Stock Down

LeSean McCoy

Why sign Ronnie Brown? Doesn’t make sense to me. All they’re going to do is take away touches from a talented RB and give them to an inconsistent, injury prone one.

Ryan Matthews

Copy, paste. Looks like Tolbert will become the Chargers 3rd down back with Sproles gone and should be pretty heavily utilized in the offense. Good for Tolbert, bad for Matthews.

Zach Miller

Miller was consistent in Oakland with some shoddy QB play but now he’s moving to an unfamiliar situation with more bad QB play. His numbers should dip.

Matt Forte

Another RB I really liked just lost some value. The Bears plan to use Marion Barber as the goal line back. While Forte still has a lot of value, especially in PPR leagues, his TD totals will be limited.

John Carlson

Carlson didn’t have much fantasy value to begin with but it’s virtually non-existent now with Zach Miller in town.

Tim Tebow

Kyle Orton named the starter. It won’t be for long in my opinion but this robs Tebow of playing time. I’d probably still draft him in deep leagues as a potential break out player.

Ryan Torain

Torain hurt… again? Shocking! He’ll still be involved but he may be slipping behind in the race to be the starter.

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Fantasy Football Stock Up/Down July 31st

July 31, 2011 No comments

More updates. The rankings will be getting updated once free agency slows down. Then updates will be made from what I gather from training camp news and then eventually pre-season. There will be a lot of changes, and additions, to the rankings soon.

Stock Up

Joseph Addai

Looks like Addai will remain a Colt and should continue to be the lead back. We’ll have to see how Donald Brown is utilized but it’s already looking bad if they brought back Addai instead of handing the reigns to the 1st rounder from a few years ago.

Lance Kendricks

Daniel Fells has left the Rams and he caught 41 passes for them last year. Kendricks should step into the pass-catching role while Michael Hoomanawanui will probably be more of the blocker.

Denario Alexander

Alexander opened up training camp running with the 1st team. It’s pretty clear the Rams see him as an important piece of the offense moving forward.

Ryan Williams

Tim Hightower just got traded to the Redskins. If there aren’t alarms going off in your head right now about the sleeper potential of Ryan Williams, you’re not a hardcore fantasy football player! Watch out for this guy this year.

Stock Down

Arian Foster

Foster just lost his fullback. You could argue that Leach is the best FB in the league so this is a pretty big loss. Things sure look like they’re going to get worse for Foster in Houston and he will definitely not repeat his performance from a year ago.

Donald Brown

Is it safe to call him a bust yet? He’s been unspectacular and many thought this would be his year to finally take over but instead the Colts opted to bring back Addai.

Ryan Torain/Roy Helu

Tim Hightower will get touches. Whether or not he starts is a different story but it’s never good to deal with a RBBC fantasy owners. We really have to wait and see how carries will be divided in camp and pre-season.

Jordy Nelson

Well, James Jones got re-signed and it looks like he will retain his spot above Nelson on the depth chart. Unless, Driver retires or injuries hit the Packers WR corp, Nelson isn’t really worth drafting anymore.

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Fantasy Football Stock Up/Down July 30th

July 30, 2011 No comments

More updates based on free agency signings

Stock Up

Julio Jones

Michael Jenkins was released so that means Jones wins the starter spot by default. It was never really in question but now with Jenkins out of the picture it means more targets for Jones. I’ll be giving him a boost to his projections.

Willis McGahee

McGahee is now on a team that should be giving him consistent carries. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up being the lead back with what I’ve been hearing about Moreno. Right now if I had the choice of either drafting McGahee and Moreno, I’d take McGahee.

Roy Williams

He’s not that great but he’s re-united with Mike Martz and should be used a lot more in the Bears offense. He’s also pretty much the only redzone threat they have on the team now so his TD numbers should be quite high.

Chad Ochocinco

I think any WR would benefit after going from Andy Dalton to Tom Brady. The Pats are great at getting vets with “issues” that manage to turn it around. I expect a big year from Chad.

Reggie Bush

Reportedly the Dolphins told Reggie Bush he’d be the “feature back” in Miami. We’ll have to see if this is true and even if it is we have to keep in mind Bush is extremely injury prone. Regardless, this is a boost to Bush’s value who would have been playing behind Ingram and possibly Thomas in New Orleans.

Stock Down

Jeremy Shockey/Greg Olsen

Neither we’re great fantasy targets anyways but now they’re on the same team with a rookie QB. It’s going to be hard for either of them to be consistent fantasy producers.

Daniel Thomas

I wasn’t a fan of Thomas anyways but the Reggie Bush signing should drop his numbers. We have to see which one is the main ball carrier but there was always going to be a 2 back system in place.

Pierre Thomas

I thought Thomas was going to step into Reggie Bush’s role in New Orleans but the Saints went ahead and signed Sproles. Thomas will likely be just the #2 behind Ingram now and won’t see as many targets in the passing game.

Earl Bennett

So much for getting him more involved in the offense. Now he’ll be playing behind Knox and Roy Williams. He still has some value, but not as much upside.

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