Tag Archive for Busts

Overrated 1st Rounders – 2012 NFL Draft

April 24, 2012 No comments

This is Part 2 of a 2 part series where I will take a look at some players that I feel are either underrated or overrated. I enjoy the scouting process and always want to look back to see how my evaluations fared. I’m also not afraid to put my opinions and player grades out there, as I’m sure you can tell by my scouting reports. I hate the cookie-cutter mentality and hopping on the bandwagon with prospects like the media does. It’s bad for the draft community and I feel as though I wouldn’t actually be sharing my own personal thoughts instead just trying to “fit in” so I don’t get blasted for my reports.

This list consists of the players I think are the most overrated in this draft. The list is only limited to potential 1st rounders. I realize that not all of these guys are locks for the 1st round and that the draft is wildly unpredictable, but these players were considered 1st rounders for much of the off-season.

To view my list of underrated 1st rounders please visit – http://ogdraft.com/2012/04/underrated-1st-rounders-2012-nfl-draft/

Justin Blackmon – WR – Oklahoma State

Blackmon can be a great #2 in the NFL, but he's certainly not an elite #1 receiver.

It seems that many have changed their tune on Blackmon, or maybe have just done a little more homework. I don’t believe he is a true #1 receiver and I wrote it in my scouting report in November. Now it seems people are starting to catch on and there’s some rumors he could slide out of the top 10 on draft day. He can still be a very good #2 receiver, but he’s not an elite player and I think he’s worse than former OSU receiver Dez Bryant. Read more

NFL Draft , , ,

2011 Fantasy Football PPR TE Rankings

September 1, 2011 No comments

Rankings are based on PPR scoring of 1 point per reception and 1 point for every 20 receiving yards.

1. Antonio Gates – San Diego Chargers – Bye Week 6

2010 PPR Points: 149

2011 Projections: 80 receptions, 1100 yards, 10 TD’s

2011 PPR Points: 195

Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: Low

Analysis:

Antonio Gates has to be the #1 TE again this year. He’s incredibly consistent as he hasn’t caught less than 8 TD’s since his rookie year. With Vincent Jackson likely gone that only means more targets for Gates. He should be in for a monster season.

2. Dallas Clark – Indianapolis Colts – Bye Week 11

2010 PPR Points: 72

2011 Projections: 85 receptions, 950 yards, 8 TD’s

2011 PPR Points: 181

Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: Low

Analysis:

Dallas Clark is another TE who should bounce back after being injured. I don’t think he’ll catch 100 passes again since Peyton will have all of his weapons available. Austin Collie should take away some of Clarks receptions as he himself is a PPR beast. Still Clark is a very good option at TE for consistent production.

3. Jason Witten – Dallas Cowboys – Bye Week 5

2010 PPR Points: 146

2011 Projections: 90 receptions, 1050 yards, 6 TD’s

2011 PPR Points: 179

Injury Risk: Very Low
Bust Potential: Very Low

Analysis:

It’s amazing that in a season where his starting QB got hurt and we saw the emergence of Dez Bryant, Witten finished the year as the #1 ranked fantasy TE. He also caught a career high 9 TD passes. He’s consistent so we know what to expect. The only thing that is unknown is his TD total which has varied a lot through his career.

4. Brandon Pettigrew – Detroit Lions – Bye Week 7

2010 PPR Points: 131

2011 Projections: 80 receptions, 850 yards, 6 TD’s

2011 PPR Points: 159

Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: Low

Analysis:

Pettigrew is a beast both as a run blocker and pass catcher. He should have an even bigger role in the offense this year especially if Stafford can stay healthy. He’s a good PPR option but his lack of TD’s will hurt him. He needs Stafford to stay healthy to put him over the top and into that next tier of TE’s.

5. Jermichael Finley – Green Bay Packers – Bye Week 8

2010 PPR Points: 42

2011 Projections: 70 receptions, 900 yards, 7 TD’s

2011 PPR Points: 157

Injury Risk: High
Bust Potential: Medium

Analysis:

Finley has the potential to put up monster numbers. He’s a great pass catcher and he plays in an explosive offense. The problem is he can’t stay healthy. He’s been in the league 3 years now and has yet to play a full 16 game season. He’s risky but if he stays healthy he’ll produce for you. Read more

Fantasy Football, TE Rankings (PPR) , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

2011 Fantasy Football PPR WR Rankings

September 1, 2011 No comments

Rankings are based on PPR scoring of 1 point per reception and 1 point for every 20 receiving yards.

1. Andre Johnson – Houston Texans – Bye Week 11

2010 PPR Points: 196

2011 Projections: 105 receptions, 1500 yards, 9 TD’s

2011 PPR Points: 234

Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: Very Low

Analysis:

Andre Johnson was a beast again last year, although he did let fantasy owners down in the playoffs, and should remain the #1 ranked fantasy WR. Andre Johnson is sometimes labelled injury prone but the truth is he has only missed 13 games in his 8 year career. He’s been remarkably consistent and there are no signs of him slowing down anytime soon.

2. Hakeem Nicks – New York Giants – Bye Week 7

2010 PPR Points: 198

2011 Projections: 95 receptions, 1280 yards, 11 TD’s

2011 PPR Points: 225

Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: Medium

Analysis:

Nicks is a stud and should put up monster numbers this year. The problem is, he’s a bit injury prone. He hasn’t played a full 16 games yet in his brief NFL career. It’s pretty concerning but last year he dominated while still missing 3 games. He’s the go to guy in that offense and with Steve Smith possibly missing some time, it just adds to Nicks’ value.

3. Roddy White – Atlanta Falcons – Bye Week 8

2010 PPR Points: 247

2011 Projections: 95 receptions, 1350 yards, 9 TD’s

2011 PPR Points: 217

Injury Risk: Very Low
Bust Potential: Very Low

Analysis:

The addition of Julio Jones doesn’t really hurt Roddy’s value. He may take away some redzone looks but Roddy is still the man in Atlanta. The Falcons are probably going to stretch the field out more this year and Roddy’s average yard per catch should go back up to where it was for most of his career. He’s incredibly consistent though and won’t disappoint fantasy owners. Don’t let Julio Jones cloud your judgement.

4. Miles Austin – Dallas Cowboys – Bye Week 5

2010 PPR Points:  176

2011 Projections: 85 receptions, 1320 yards, 10 TD’s

2011 PPR Points: 211

Injury Risk: Low
Bust Potential: Low

Analysis:

Austin’s numbers suffered last year as a result of Tony Romo’s injury. In his breakout year he could have easily reached over 100 catches if he started every game. That’s the potential we are talking about here. I don’t think he’ll get that high with the addition of Dez Bryant, but he’ll still put up  great numbers.

5. Larry Fitzgerald – Arizona Cardinals – Bye Week 6

2010 PPR Points: 185

2011 Projections: 95 receptions, 1250 yards, 8 TD’s

2011 PPR Points: 206

Injury Risk: Very Low
Bust Potential: Very Low

Analysis:

Update Aug. 9:

Kolb will be throwing Fitz the ball so I think these numbers are fair.

Drafting Fitzgerald is always a safe bet. Even with some of the worst starting QB’s in the league last year, Fitz still put up 146 fantasy points. His 6 TD catches hurt him, but that should improve this year. We’ll have to see who will throw him the ball. If he can still be a fantasy starter with Max Hall and John Skelton under center, I’m not worried about him. Read more

Fantasy Football, WR Rankings (PPR) , , , , , , , , , , ,

2011 Fantasy Football PPR RB Rankings

September 1, 2011 No comments

Rankings are based on PPR scoring of 1 point per reception and 1 point for every 20 receiving yards.

1. Adrian Peterson – Minnesota Vikings – Bye Week 9

2010 PPR Points: 259

2011 Projections: 1400 yards, 14 TD’s, 50 receptions, 500 yards, 2 TD, 2 FL

2011 PPR Points: 307

Injury Risk: Low
Bust Potential: Very Low

Analysis:

Update Aug. 8:

Well Peterson’s QB situation just got a lot better and they plan on getting him more involved in the passing game. Signs point to AP having another great year. He’s my #1 ranked player.

Peterson is my #1 ranked RB for many reasons. The main one being he’s a proven elite fantasy and NFL player. People point out that Ponder will hurt Peterson’s production. This is the same AP who lit it up with Tarvaris Jackson and Gus Frerotte at QB. Peterson will get a lot of carries this year and could post upwards of 1500 rushing yards. He seems to have fixed his fumbling issue as he only fumbled once all of last year. Peterson will get the job done for your fantasy team in 2011.

2. Ray Rice – Baltimore Ravens – Bye Week 5

2010 PPR Points: 249

2011 Projections: 1350 yards, 9 TD’s, 65 receptions, 580 yards, 2 TD, 1 FL

2011 PPR Points: 294

Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: Low

Analysis:

Update Aug. 22:

Ricky Williams will just take over McGehee’s role from last year and that didn’t stop Rice from having a good year. In fact, Williams will probably be used even less. Rice has received support from his coach in terms of short yardage carries so I’m still very high on Ray Rice.

Update Aug. 8:

McGahee and McClain are out of the picture. The Ravens also added arguably the best FB in the league in Vonta Leach to clear up holes. I’m giving Rice a TD boost and he could easily top 2000 yards and 10 TD’s this year. He’s an elite fantasy back that I wouldn’t hesitate taking 2nd overall.

I really like Ray Rice to bounce back this year. Many people said he was a bust last year despite still putting up over 1700 total yards. Sure, he may never be a TD threat but he will have more than 5 this year. McGahee will be gone so Rice will get more carries and a lot more goal line looks as well. McClain should steal some TD’s but Rice will get his fair share. He should be in for a great season and a lot of people are over-looking him because of his “poor” season last year.

3. Arian Foster – Houston Texans – Bye Week 11

2010 PPR Points: 362

2011 Projections: 1250 yards, 13 TD’s, 50 receptions, 475 yards, 1 TD, 2 FL

2011 PPR Points: 279

Injury Risk: High
Bust Potential: High

Analysis:

Update Aug. 30:

Foster re-aggravated his hamstring injury. I’m trying to warn you guys…

Update Aug. 8:

More concerning news out of Houston. First, Foster lost his lead blocker who is arguably the best FB in the league. To pile on even further Foster is already hurt in training camp with a hamstring injury. Nothing serious but there are red flags everywhere.

A lot of people think Foster should be the unanimous #1 pick and that he’s the safest of the top RB’s, but I disagree. I drafted him in several leagues last year so I know what he’s capable of but there are still some risks. The simplest to point out is that he is a 1 year wonder. He’s very young so we don’t know what to expect. Will he repeat? Will he get hurt after such a heavy workload? The second would be Ben Tate. Yes the same Ben Tate who was set to start last year before getting hurt. Ben Tate will take carries away and I can see Tate getting a lot of work on 3rd down which is why Foster’s receptions took a bit of a hit in my projections. And thirdly, what he did last year was great but he got help from the fact that the Texans could keep defenses honest with the pass. What happens if Schaub gets hurt? Teams will stack the box and key on Foster. Schaub is very injury prone so it could happen. That’s why I don’t think he should be your #1 pick.

4. LeSean McCoy – Philadelphia Eagles – Bye Week 7

2010 PPR Points: 268

2011 Projections: 1100 yards, 8 TD’s, 75 receptions, 580 yards, 2 TD’s, 2 FL

2011 PPR Points: 270

Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: Low

Analysis:

Update Aug. 8:

I was disappointed to see the Eagles sign Ronnie Brown. McCoy is a great player and they will just be taking touches away from him now. McCoy still has a lot of potential but Ronnie Brown limits it a bit.

LeSean McCoy blew up last year and was dominant in PPR leagues. That should continue this season as well. Vick will keep defenses honest and allow McCoy to run wild. He should see most of the carries and he should be getting way more than the 207 carries he saw last season. He’s not much of a TD threat but makes up for it with his receiving yards.

5. Chris Johnson – Tennessee Titans – Bye Week 6

2010 PPR Points: 261

2011 Projections: 1300 yards, 11 TD’s, 50 receptions, 320 yards, 1 TD, 2 FL

2011 PPR Points: 264

Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: High

Analysis:

Update Aug. 22:

Chris Johnson’s hold out doesn’t look like it’s going to come to an end anytime soon. He could even miss some regular season games at this point. I’m not going to lower his projections yet but keep this in mind when drafting.

CJ couldn’t repeat his 09 performance but he was still good in ’10. He should improve this year despite having a rookie QB as a starter. Locker should check down to him a lot do his receptions should get a boost. Locker is also a threat to run so defense will respect his legs like they did for Vince Young which should give CJ some more room to run.

Read more

Fantasy Football, RB Rankings (PPR) , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

2011 Fantasy Football TE Rankings

August 30, 2011 2 comments

1. Antonio Gates – San Diego Chargers – Bye Week 6

2010 Points: 134

2011 Projections: 80 receptions, 1100 yards, 10 TD’s

2011 Points: 170

Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: Low

Analysis:

Antonio Gates has to be the #1 TE again this year. He’s incredibly consistent as he hasn’t caught less than 8 TD’s since his rookie year. He’s being slowed down a bit by another injury but he should be ready for the regular season and he should be in for a monster season.

2. Dallas Clark – Indianapolis Colts – Bye Week 11

2010 Points: 51

2011 Projections: 85 receptions, 950 yards, 8 TD’s

2011 Points: 143

Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: Low

Analysis:

Dallas Clark is another TE who should bounce back after being injured. I don’t think he’ll catch 100 passes again since Peyton will have all of his weapons available. Austin Collie should take away some of Clarks receptions as he himself is a PPR beast. Still Clark is a very good option at TE for consistent production.

3. Jason Witten – Dallas Cowboys – Bye Week 5

2010 Points: 146

2011 Projections: 90 receptions, 1050 yards, 6 TD’s

2011 Points: 141

Injury Risk: Very Low
Bust Potential: Very Low

Analysis:

It’s amazing that in a season where his starting QB got hurt and we saw the emergence of Dez Bryant, Witten finished the year as the #1 ranked fantasy TE. He also caught a career high 9 TD passes. He’s consistent so we know what to expect. The only thing that is unknown is his TD total which has varied a lot through his career.

4. Vernon Davis – San Francisco 49ers – Bye Week 9

2010 Points: 129

2011 Projections: 65 receptions, 850 yards, 8 TD’s

2011 Points: 133

Injury Risk: Low
Bust Potential: Low

Analysis:

Vernon Davis finally broke out 2 years ago and has been tearing it up ever since with back-to-back 900+ yard seasons. He has yet to play with a consistent QB and he won’t again this year. Still, you expect Harbaugh to use Davis as much as possible in the passing game.

5. Jermichael Finley – Green Bay Packers – Bye Week 8

2010 Points: 34

2011 Projections: 70 receptions, 900 yards, 7 TD’s

2011 Points: 132

Injury Risk: High
Bust Potential: Medium

Analysis:

Finley has the potential to put up monster numbers. He’s a great pass catcher and he plays in an explosive offense. The problem is he can’t stay healthy. He’s been in the league 3 years now and has yet to play a full 16 game season. He’s risky but if he stays healthy he’ll produce for you.

Read more

Fantasy Football, TE Rankings , , , , , , , , , , , ,
« Older Entries