Rankings are based on PPR scoring of 1 point per reception and 1 point for every 20 receiving yards.
1. Adrian Peterson – Minnesota Vikings – Bye Week 9
2010 PPR Points: 259
2011 Projections: 1400 yards, 14 TD’s, 50 receptions, 500 yards, 2 TD, 2 FL
2011 PPR Points: 307
Injury Risk: Low
Bust Potential: Very Low
Analysis:
Update Aug. 8:
Well Peterson’s QB situation just got a lot better and they plan on getting him more involved in the passing game. Signs point to AP having another great year. He’s my #1 ranked player.
Peterson is my #1 ranked RB for many reasons. The main one being he’s a proven elite fantasy and NFL player. People point out that Ponder will hurt Peterson’s production. This is the same AP who lit it up with Tarvaris Jackson and Gus Frerotte at QB. Peterson will get a lot of carries this year and could post upwards of 1500 rushing yards. He seems to have fixed his fumbling issue as he only fumbled once all of last year. Peterson will get the job done for your fantasy team in 2011.
2. Ray Rice – Baltimore Ravens – Bye Week 5
2010 PPR Points: 249
2011 Projections: 1350 yards, 9 TD’s, 65 receptions, 580 yards, 2 TD, 1 FL
2011 PPR Points: 294
Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: Low
Analysis:
Update Aug. 22:
Ricky Williams will just take over McGehee’s role from last year and that didn’t stop Rice from having a good year. In fact, Williams will probably be used even less. Rice has received support from his coach in terms of short yardage carries so I’m still very high on Ray Rice.
Update Aug. 8:
McGahee and McClain are out of the picture. The Ravens also added arguably the best FB in the league in Vonta Leach to clear up holes. I’m giving Rice a TD boost and he could easily top 2000 yards and 10 TD’s this year. He’s an elite fantasy back that I wouldn’t hesitate taking 2nd overall.
I really like Ray Rice to bounce back this year. Many people said he was a bust last year despite still putting up over 1700 total yards. Sure, he may never be a TD threat but he will have more than 5 this year. McGahee will be gone so Rice will get more carries and a lot more goal line looks as well. McClain should steal some TD’s but Rice will get his fair share. He should be in for a great season and a lot of people are over-looking him because of his “poor” season last year.
3. Arian Foster – Houston Texans – Bye Week 11
2010 PPR Points: 362
2011 Projections: 1250 yards, 13 TD’s, 50 receptions, 475 yards, 1 TD, 2 FL
2011 PPR Points: 279
Injury Risk: High
Bust Potential: High
Analysis:
Update Aug. 30:
Foster re-aggravated his hamstring injury. I’m trying to warn you guys…
Update Aug. 8:
More concerning news out of Houston. First, Foster lost his lead blocker who is arguably the best FB in the league. To pile on even further Foster is already hurt in training camp with a hamstring injury. Nothing serious but there are red flags everywhere.
A lot of people think Foster should be the unanimous #1 pick and that he’s the safest of the top RB’s, but I disagree. I drafted him in several leagues last year so I know what he’s capable of but there are still some risks. The simplest to point out is that he is a 1 year wonder. He’s very young so we don’t know what to expect. Will he repeat? Will he get hurt after such a heavy workload? The second would be Ben Tate. Yes the same Ben Tate who was set to start last year before getting hurt. Ben Tate will take carries away and I can see Tate getting a lot of work on 3rd down which is why Foster’s receptions took a bit of a hit in my projections. And thirdly, what he did last year was great but he got help from the fact that the Texans could keep defenses honest with the pass. What happens if Schaub gets hurt? Teams will stack the box and key on Foster. Schaub is very injury prone so it could happen. That’s why I don’t think he should be your #1 pick.
4. LeSean McCoy – Philadelphia Eagles – Bye Week 7
2010 PPR Points: 268
2011 Projections: 1100 yards, 8 TD’s, 75 receptions, 580 yards, 2 TD’s, 2 FL
2011 PPR Points: 270
Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: Low
Analysis:
Update Aug. 8:
I was disappointed to see the Eagles sign Ronnie Brown. McCoy is a great player and they will just be taking touches away from him now. McCoy still has a lot of potential but Ronnie Brown limits it a bit.
LeSean McCoy blew up last year and was dominant in PPR leagues. That should continue this season as well. Vick will keep defenses honest and allow McCoy to run wild. He should see most of the carries and he should be getting way more than the 207 carries he saw last season. He’s not much of a TD threat but makes up for it with his receiving yards.
5. Chris Johnson – Tennessee Titans – Bye Week 6
2010 PPR Points: 261
2011 Projections: 1300 yards, 11 TD’s, 50 receptions, 320 yards, 1 TD, 2 FL
2011 PPR Points: 264
Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: High
Analysis:
Update Aug. 22:
Chris Johnson’s hold out doesn’t look like it’s going to come to an end anytime soon. He could even miss some regular season games at this point. I’m not going to lower his projections yet but keep this in mind when drafting.
CJ couldn’t repeat his 09 performance but he was still good in ’10. He should improve this year despite having a rookie QB as a starter. Locker should check down to him a lot do his receptions should get a boost. Locker is also a threat to run so defense will respect his legs like they did for Vince Young which should give CJ some more room to run.
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