Tag Archive for PPR

2012 Fantasy Football Sleepers

August 24, 2012 No comments

Raise your hand if you predicted Victor Cruz’s breakout season.

Getting a stud running back or one of the top 3 quarterbacks is usually what most people aim for when conducting their fantasy draft. After all, you need those consistent weapons to produce if you want to have a shot at the playoffs. However, to have a shot at a championship you need to hit on some of your late round picks as well. Last year we saw the emergence of players like Victor Cruz, Jordy Nelson, Steve Smith, Darren Sproles, Reggie Bush and Rob Gronkowski, to name a few, that could have been had for a late round draft pick or for free as they hit the free agent pool to start the season. I’ve personally witnessed a team that was fighting for a playoff spot go on to win the league due to the strong performances of Nelson, Cruz and Gronkowski down the stretch. Now here is my list of guys who present good value this year and could end up separating a great team from a good team.

Quarterbacks

Josh Freeman – Tampa Bay
Projected Stat Line: 3700 yards, 21 TD, 15 INT, 250 rushing, 2 TD
ADP: 120

Josh Freeman was a huge disappointment last year after a great sophomore year. However, he had very little help around him. This year is a different story. First up the Bucs addressed the offensive line but getting one of the best guards in the game, Carl Nicks. They also gave Freeman a legitimate #1 receiver, Vincent Jackson. They also drafted running back Doug Martin out of Boise State who figures to get a ton of work as a 3rd down back and should help out Freeman in the passing game. The Bucs as a team are much better as the defense has improved as well. Look for them to make some noise this year and that starts with their quarterback who is on average getting picked in the 12th round behind quarterbacks like Carson Palmer and Andy Dalton.

Matt Schaub – Houston
Projected Stat Line: 4100 yards, 23 TD, 13 INT, 50 rushing
ADP: 90-110

Matt Schaub used to be one of the best fantasy quarterbacks to own. The Texans had an explosive big play offense and fantasy owners would overlook his injury issues just to have a part in those 400+ yard games. Well, Schaub got hurt again and the Texans are relying on the run game more than ever. However, Schaub is still a pretty good quarterback and is certainly a bargain in the 10th round. He could still put up low-end QB#1 numbers.

Running Backs

Mark Ingram could push for 10 rushing touchdowns this year.

Mark Ingram
Projected Stat Line: 750 yards, 9 TD, 15 receptions, 100 yards
ADP: 90-110

Mark Ingram was disappointing in his rookie year. He struggled to stay healthy and averaged just 3.9 yards per carry when he was on the field. This year he’s 100% heading into the season and while he will still battle Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles for carries, he figures to be the favorite to be the “workhorse” of the group. His fantasy value comes from his potential touchdown totals as the Saints have already been using him in pre-season at the goal-line. He’s got good upside for a 9-10th round pick.

Stevan Ridley – New England
Projected Stat Line: 800 yards, 10 TD, 10 receptions, 80 yards
ADP: 70-90

Stevan Ridley managed an impressive 5.1 YPC last year but was second fiddle to Green-Ellis. With BJGE now gone, Ridley is the Patriots starting back. True, he’s part of a committee that features Shane Vereen and Danny Woodhead but Ridley is favored to be the main back. If BJGE can put up double digit touchdowns, so can Ridley.

Kevin Smith – Detroit
Projected Stat Line: 750 yards, 6 TD, 25 receptions, 200 yards, 1 TD
ADP: 120-130

Kevin Smith is the best back on the Detroit Lions. Jahvid Best can’t stay healthy and now it looks like he will be out for at least the first 6 games of the year. Besides the injury trouble, Best is a very overrated back. Leshoure has his own issues, both on and off the field, and is no more than a back-up at this point. Smith is the starter and should be able to keep his job for most, if not all, of the season. He’s an excellent value pick considering his ADP is 132.

Ryan Williams – Arizona
Projected Stat Line: 600 yards, 4 TD, 30 receptions, 240 yards, 2 TD
ADP: 120-140

Ryan Williams is coming off of a nasty knee injury but reports out of camp have been very positive. At this point in the year Williams may not look like an attractive fantasy option. However, his value comes from the fact that he plays behind a very injury prone Beanie Wells. Williams is the more talented back so if/when Wells goes down, Williams should be able to put up great numbers. He’s certainly worth a stash in deeper leagues and he should still make an impact week-to-week as he is an excellent receiver and change of pace back.

David Wilson – New York Giants
Projected Stat Line: 800 yards, 6 TD, 35 receptions, 280 yards, 1 TD
ADP: 110-120

I have two former Hokies on my sleeper list and I was a big fan of both of them in college. Wilson may be in a more favorable situation because he’s on a much more talented offense, he’s healthier, and he was a 1st round pick that the team is anxious to show off. He’s also playing behind an injury prone starter and should get his shot at some point this year. When he does, he has the potential to go off as he is a huge home run threat.

Wide Receivers

The forgotten Mike Williams could end up having a better year than prized free agent signing Vincent Jackson.

Mike Williams – Tampa Bay
Projected Stat Line: 70 receptions, 880 yards, 6 TD
ADP: 120-140

Vincent Jackson was the big off-season move for the Bucs at receiver but Mike Williams may end up out-producing the new addition. Williams has taken this off-season more seriously in hopes to rebound off a “poor” 65 catch, 771 yard season. Josh Freeman will take some time to get used to Jackson which should allow the much more familiar Williams to get more targets. A 1000 yard season is not out of the question but Williams continues to be drafted behind the likes of Randy Moss, Devin Hester, and Laurent Robinson.

Reggie Wayne – Indianapolis
Projected Stat Line: 80 receptions, 1000 yards, 6 TD
ADP: 90-100

The Colts receivers are being drafted too low. Reggie Wayne had a tough season last year because his quarterback play was terrible. An argument could be made that he’s slowing down as well due to his age. This certainly makes him more injury prone but he’s in a far better situation this year. Andrew Luck is a much more competent quarterback than guys like Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky. He’s already proven that through 2 pre-season games. Luck also looked for Wayne quite a bit in pre-season action and the vet still looks good. There’s no reason why he can’t at least replicate last years numbers, but it’s more likely he betters them.

Titus Young – Detroit
Projected Stat Line: 60 receptions, 800 yards, 6 TD
ADP: 120

Titus Young has been phenomenal in camp and could move ahead of Nate Burleson in terms of targets this year. The 2nd year receiver is an explosive playmaker who quietly had over 600 yards and 6 touchdowns as a rookie. Those numbers should improve and if Calvin Johnson suffers an injury, he’ll be in for an even bigger role.

Jonathan Baldwin – Kansas City
Projected Stat Line: 55 receptions, 720 yards, 4 TD
ADP: 130-150

Baldwin is one of the hottest receivers in camp and he’s generated quite a buzz. Despite this, he’s still a borderline draft pick in most leagues. He’s limited by poor quarterback play and a run heavy offense but he should be behind only Dwayne Bowe in terms of targets. He’s a high upside late round flier that is definitely worth a low risk gamble.

Kendall Wright – Tennessee
Projected Stat Line: 50 receptions, 700 yards, 5 TD
ADP: 120-140

Kendall Wright was my #1 ranked receiver in the 2012 draft so I definitely expect him to make an impact. He’s already developed a good rapport with Jake Locker and has been climbing up the depth chart. Even when Kenny Britt gets back, Wright should still see a lot of looks. He’s a big play threat and if Jake Locker improves his play, they could form an exciting duo.

Austin Collie – Indianapolis
Projected Stat Line: 75 receptions, 900 yards, 5 TD
ADP: 125-145

Collie is emerging as Andrew Luck’s favorite target throughout the pre-season. He’s been moved outside to flanker and has looked good. The Colts will struggle this year so they’ll be forced to play catch-up by passing quite a bit. Andrew Luck certainly looks like an NFL quarterback and if Collie can stay healthy, which is a big if, he could end up being the Colts leading receiver.

Tight Ends

Is this the year Greg Olsen finally reaches his full potential?

Greg Olsen – Carolina
Projected Stat Line: 75 receptions, 900 yards, 7 TD
ADP: 135

The Panthers have big plans for Greg Olsen. Ron Rivera stated that Olsen could put up Jimmy Graham/Rob Gronkowski type numbers this year. Now, I’m not so sure about that but his numbers should see a healthy bump after the departure of Jeremy Shockey.

Jared Cook – Tennessee
Projected Stat Line: 60 receptions, 850 yards, 5 TD
ADP: 120-130

Jared Cook is ready for a breakout year after a strong finish last season. He’s athletic and an excellent pass catcher and could present some mismatches. There’s a lot to like about Cook and if you miss out on the top tight ends, he’s certainly worth a late round pick due to his immense upside.

That concludes my list of 15 sleepers to watch out for this year. All have upside and are great value picks. They’re gambles worth taking. Stay tuned for my Super Sleepers list. I’ll be taking a look at players that likely won’t even be drafted in your fantasy league but could end up making a huge impact down the road.

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2011 Fantasy Football PPR TE Rankings

September 1, 2011 No comments

Rankings are based on PPR scoring of 1 point per reception and 1 point for every 20 receiving yards.

1. Antonio Gates – San Diego Chargers – Bye Week 6

2010 PPR Points: 149

2011 Projections: 80 receptions, 1100 yards, 10 TD’s

2011 PPR Points: 195

Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: Low

Analysis:

Antonio Gates has to be the #1 TE again this year. He’s incredibly consistent as he hasn’t caught less than 8 TD’s since his rookie year. With Vincent Jackson likely gone that only means more targets for Gates. He should be in for a monster season.

2. Dallas Clark – Indianapolis Colts – Bye Week 11

2010 PPR Points: 72

2011 Projections: 85 receptions, 950 yards, 8 TD’s

2011 PPR Points: 181

Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: Low

Analysis:

Dallas Clark is another TE who should bounce back after being injured. I don’t think he’ll catch 100 passes again since Peyton will have all of his weapons available. Austin Collie should take away some of Clarks receptions as he himself is a PPR beast. Still Clark is a very good option at TE for consistent production.

3. Jason Witten – Dallas Cowboys – Bye Week 5

2010 PPR Points: 146

2011 Projections: 90 receptions, 1050 yards, 6 TD’s

2011 PPR Points: 179

Injury Risk: Very Low
Bust Potential: Very Low

Analysis:

It’s amazing that in a season where his starting QB got hurt and we saw the emergence of Dez Bryant, Witten finished the year as the #1 ranked fantasy TE. He also caught a career high 9 TD passes. He’s consistent so we know what to expect. The only thing that is unknown is his TD total which has varied a lot through his career.

4. Brandon Pettigrew – Detroit Lions – Bye Week 7

2010 PPR Points: 131

2011 Projections: 80 receptions, 850 yards, 6 TD’s

2011 PPR Points: 159

Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: Low

Analysis:

Pettigrew is a beast both as a run blocker and pass catcher. He should have an even bigger role in the offense this year especially if Stafford can stay healthy. He’s a good PPR option but his lack of TD’s will hurt him. He needs Stafford to stay healthy to put him over the top and into that next tier of TE’s.

5. Jermichael Finley – Green Bay Packers – Bye Week 8

2010 PPR Points: 42

2011 Projections: 70 receptions, 900 yards, 7 TD’s

2011 PPR Points: 157

Injury Risk: High
Bust Potential: Medium

Analysis:

Finley has the potential to put up monster numbers. He’s a great pass catcher and he plays in an explosive offense. The problem is he can’t stay healthy. He’s been in the league 3 years now and has yet to play a full 16 game season. He’s risky but if he stays healthy he’ll produce for you. Read more

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2011 Fantasy Football PPR WR Rankings

September 1, 2011 No comments

Rankings are based on PPR scoring of 1 point per reception and 1 point for every 20 receiving yards.

1. Andre Johnson – Houston Texans – Bye Week 11

2010 PPR Points: 196

2011 Projections: 105 receptions, 1500 yards, 9 TD’s

2011 PPR Points: 234

Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: Very Low

Analysis:

Andre Johnson was a beast again last year, although he did let fantasy owners down in the playoffs, and should remain the #1 ranked fantasy WR. Andre Johnson is sometimes labelled injury prone but the truth is he has only missed 13 games in his 8 year career. He’s been remarkably consistent and there are no signs of him slowing down anytime soon.

2. Hakeem Nicks – New York Giants – Bye Week 7

2010 PPR Points: 198

2011 Projections: 95 receptions, 1280 yards, 11 TD’s

2011 PPR Points: 225

Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: Medium

Analysis:

Nicks is a stud and should put up monster numbers this year. The problem is, he’s a bit injury prone. He hasn’t played a full 16 games yet in his brief NFL career. It’s pretty concerning but last year he dominated while still missing 3 games. He’s the go to guy in that offense and with Steve Smith possibly missing some time, it just adds to Nicks’ value.

3. Roddy White – Atlanta Falcons – Bye Week 8

2010 PPR Points: 247

2011 Projections: 95 receptions, 1350 yards, 9 TD’s

2011 PPR Points: 217

Injury Risk: Very Low
Bust Potential: Very Low

Analysis:

The addition of Julio Jones doesn’t really hurt Roddy’s value. He may take away some redzone looks but Roddy is still the man in Atlanta. The Falcons are probably going to stretch the field out more this year and Roddy’s average yard per catch should go back up to where it was for most of his career. He’s incredibly consistent though and won’t disappoint fantasy owners. Don’t let Julio Jones cloud your judgement.

4. Miles Austin – Dallas Cowboys – Bye Week 5

2010 PPR Points:  176

2011 Projections: 85 receptions, 1320 yards, 10 TD’s

2011 PPR Points: 211

Injury Risk: Low
Bust Potential: Low

Analysis:

Austin’s numbers suffered last year as a result of Tony Romo’s injury. In his breakout year he could have easily reached over 100 catches if he started every game. That’s the potential we are talking about here. I don’t think he’ll get that high with the addition of Dez Bryant, but he’ll still put up  great numbers.

5. Larry Fitzgerald – Arizona Cardinals – Bye Week 6

2010 PPR Points: 185

2011 Projections: 95 receptions, 1250 yards, 8 TD’s

2011 PPR Points: 206

Injury Risk: Very Low
Bust Potential: Very Low

Analysis:

Update Aug. 9:

Kolb will be throwing Fitz the ball so I think these numbers are fair.

Drafting Fitzgerald is always a safe bet. Even with some of the worst starting QB’s in the league last year, Fitz still put up 146 fantasy points. His 6 TD catches hurt him, but that should improve this year. We’ll have to see who will throw him the ball. If he can still be a fantasy starter with Max Hall and John Skelton under center, I’m not worried about him. Read more

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2011 Fantasy Football PPR RB Rankings

September 1, 2011 No comments

Rankings are based on PPR scoring of 1 point per reception and 1 point for every 20 receiving yards.

1. Adrian Peterson – Minnesota Vikings – Bye Week 9

2010 PPR Points: 259

2011 Projections: 1400 yards, 14 TD’s, 50 receptions, 500 yards, 2 TD, 2 FL

2011 PPR Points: 307

Injury Risk: Low
Bust Potential: Very Low

Analysis:

Update Aug. 8:

Well Peterson’s QB situation just got a lot better and they plan on getting him more involved in the passing game. Signs point to AP having another great year. He’s my #1 ranked player.

Peterson is my #1 ranked RB for many reasons. The main one being he’s a proven elite fantasy and NFL player. People point out that Ponder will hurt Peterson’s production. This is the same AP who lit it up with Tarvaris Jackson and Gus Frerotte at QB. Peterson will get a lot of carries this year and could post upwards of 1500 rushing yards. He seems to have fixed his fumbling issue as he only fumbled once all of last year. Peterson will get the job done for your fantasy team in 2011.

2. Ray Rice – Baltimore Ravens – Bye Week 5

2010 PPR Points: 249

2011 Projections: 1350 yards, 9 TD’s, 65 receptions, 580 yards, 2 TD, 1 FL

2011 PPR Points: 294

Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: Low

Analysis:

Update Aug. 22:

Ricky Williams will just take over McGehee’s role from last year and that didn’t stop Rice from having a good year. In fact, Williams will probably be used even less. Rice has received support from his coach in terms of short yardage carries so I’m still very high on Ray Rice.

Update Aug. 8:

McGahee and McClain are out of the picture. The Ravens also added arguably the best FB in the league in Vonta Leach to clear up holes. I’m giving Rice a TD boost and he could easily top 2000 yards and 10 TD’s this year. He’s an elite fantasy back that I wouldn’t hesitate taking 2nd overall.

I really like Ray Rice to bounce back this year. Many people said he was a bust last year despite still putting up over 1700 total yards. Sure, he may never be a TD threat but he will have more than 5 this year. McGahee will be gone so Rice will get more carries and a lot more goal line looks as well. McClain should steal some TD’s but Rice will get his fair share. He should be in for a great season and a lot of people are over-looking him because of his “poor” season last year.

3. Arian Foster – Houston Texans – Bye Week 11

2010 PPR Points: 362

2011 Projections: 1250 yards, 13 TD’s, 50 receptions, 475 yards, 1 TD, 2 FL

2011 PPR Points: 279

Injury Risk: High
Bust Potential: High

Analysis:

Update Aug. 30:

Foster re-aggravated his hamstring injury. I’m trying to warn you guys…

Update Aug. 8:

More concerning news out of Houston. First, Foster lost his lead blocker who is arguably the best FB in the league. To pile on even further Foster is already hurt in training camp with a hamstring injury. Nothing serious but there are red flags everywhere.

A lot of people think Foster should be the unanimous #1 pick and that he’s the safest of the top RB’s, but I disagree. I drafted him in several leagues last year so I know what he’s capable of but there are still some risks. The simplest to point out is that he is a 1 year wonder. He’s very young so we don’t know what to expect. Will he repeat? Will he get hurt after such a heavy workload? The second would be Ben Tate. Yes the same Ben Tate who was set to start last year before getting hurt. Ben Tate will take carries away and I can see Tate getting a lot of work on 3rd down which is why Foster’s receptions took a bit of a hit in my projections. And thirdly, what he did last year was great but he got help from the fact that the Texans could keep defenses honest with the pass. What happens if Schaub gets hurt? Teams will stack the box and key on Foster. Schaub is very injury prone so it could happen. That’s why I don’t think he should be your #1 pick.

4. LeSean McCoy – Philadelphia Eagles – Bye Week 7

2010 PPR Points: 268

2011 Projections: 1100 yards, 8 TD’s, 75 receptions, 580 yards, 2 TD’s, 2 FL

2011 PPR Points: 270

Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: Low

Analysis:

Update Aug. 8:

I was disappointed to see the Eagles sign Ronnie Brown. McCoy is a great player and they will just be taking touches away from him now. McCoy still has a lot of potential but Ronnie Brown limits it a bit.

LeSean McCoy blew up last year and was dominant in PPR leagues. That should continue this season as well. Vick will keep defenses honest and allow McCoy to run wild. He should see most of the carries and he should be getting way more than the 207 carries he saw last season. He’s not much of a TD threat but makes up for it with his receiving yards.

5. Chris Johnson – Tennessee Titans – Bye Week 6

2010 PPR Points: 261

2011 Projections: 1300 yards, 11 TD’s, 50 receptions, 320 yards, 1 TD, 2 FL

2011 PPR Points: 264

Injury Risk: Medium
Bust Potential: High

Analysis:

Update Aug. 22:

Chris Johnson’s hold out doesn’t look like it’s going to come to an end anytime soon. He could even miss some regular season games at this point. I’m not going to lower his projections yet but keep this in mind when drafting.

CJ couldn’t repeat his 09 performance but he was still good in ’10. He should improve this year despite having a rookie QB as a starter. Locker should check down to him a lot do his receptions should get a boost. Locker is also a threat to run so defense will respect his legs like they did for Vince Young which should give CJ some more room to run.

Read more

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2011 Fantasy Football Sleepers

August 30, 2011 No comments

I’ve been dropping hints about guys I like and guys to keep an eye on for a couple of weeks now. Time to make it all official with my sleeper list. This will be in 2 parts, kind of. This is your regular sleeper list that you’ve come to expect but I’ll also be posting a “Deep Sleepers” list. That list will feature guys that aren’t on the draft radar but can really emerge as breakout players. The two lists should include anywhere between 30-35 players so OGDraft has your sleeper fix for sure! Read more

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