Tag Archive for Spread

2012 NFL Picks: Week 2

September 15, 2012 No comments

Hit on my big play with the Texans last week but unfortunately the Bills and Matt Stafford’s ineptness cost me 4 units. Not a lot of enticing games on the schedule for me but my trend applies to quite a few games this week.

Saints -2.5 (-110)
Bet 1.10 to win 1.00

I was pretty shocked that the Redskins beat the Saints on the road despite being a huge RG3 fan. The Saints are usually a great home team but they fell a little bit short. Knowing Brees and the Saints, they don’t lose 2 games in a row often. I expect them to bounce back with a big win on the road against divisional foes. The Panthers are also incredibly overrated in my opinion.

Texans -7 (-110)
Bet 1.10 to win 1.00

Well I’m just going to keep riding the Texans. They demolished the Dolphins although the Dolphins practically handed them the game at half time. Still they are much better than the Jaguars and while Gabbert has improved, MJD is still rusty and they are missing some key players for this game.

Falcons/Broncos Over 51 (-110)
Bet 1.10 to win 1.00

This has the makings of a shoot-out which is why I like the over despite it being over 50 points. Peyton Manning is going to torch the Falcons secondary that has lost stud corner Brent Grimes, meanwhile, Matt Ryan and his aerial attack will be forced to keep pace so they should be able to move the ball as well. It’s also on prime time and the quarterbacks will undoubtedly be hyped up. I can’t see them falling flat.

Trend Plays

Chiefs +3
Ravens +3
Broncos +3
Colts +3

Record: 2-3
Total: -1.20

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2012 NFL Picks: Week 1

September 4, 2012 No comments

It’s time for some regular season betting action. Last year was pretty successful as a I finished up over 14 units. I’m hoping to be more consistent with my week to week picks this year, but hey, anything can happen. Here are my plays to kickoff the season:

Bills +3 (-110)
Bet 2.20 to win 2.00

I am really struggling to come up with a reason as to why the Jets are favored in this game. The Bills are the better team and the Jets have been laughably bad in the pre-season. Sure it’s pre-season but the starters looked bad, I mean they barely scored a touchdown. This should be an easy win for the Bills but at the very least they’ll cover the 3 points.

Texans -8.5 (-110)
Bet 3.30 to win 3.00

Hurry and get on this before the odds-makers realize how bad the Dolphins are. The Texans should crush them easily. The Dolphins may be the worst team in the NFL at the moment and it shouldn’t be long before we start seeing spreads of 10 and 14 against them.

Lions -7 (Even)
Bet 2.00 to win 2.00

The Lions are a much more talented team than the Rams and they are at home in this contest. They should have no problem beating the Rams by a touchdown. How is St. Louis going to block one of the best front 7′s in football? Sam Bradford won’t have time to pick apart Detroit’s below average secondary and he’s a dink-and-dunk quarterback anyway.

Ravens -5.5 (-110)
Bet 1.10 to win 1.00

Some of these opening lines seem too easy. I’ll regret saying this after I blow all these picks but am I to believe that the Ravens can’t beat the Bengals at home by a touchdown? The Bengals are fake. They over-achieved last year and I don’t trust them. While the Bengals looked shaky in pre-season, the Ravens looked good. Notably, Joe Flacco and Torrey Smith looked like much improved players and I expect their good play to continue into the regular season.

Raiders +100
Bet 1.00 to win 1.00

I’ll take the Raiders straight up in the contest over the Chargers. The Raiders always come out with a lot of energy and they are healthy while the Chargers are dealing with some injuries. I don’t think Rivers is as great as he once was so it’s not like he can just take over the match-up. In fact, if there’s anyone that will take over this match-up it’s Darren McFadden. He’s easily one of the best backs in the league when healthy and the Chargers defense has some holes in it. I like the Raiders as long as McFadden is healthy and ready to go.

Closer to kickoff I’ll have my usual trend plays (backing public underdogs) that went 35-23-3 last year and 121-89-7 over the past 4 seasons.

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Superbowl Pick

February 1, 2012 No comments

Didn’t do so great in the divisional round and wasn’t confident with any pick in the championship games. However, I am very very confident in my Superbowl pick.

My pre-season picks have all turned out well however. I won with the Falcons under 10.5 (+1 unit), Panthers over 4.5 wins (+5 units) and Chiefs under 7.5 (+1 unit). Clean sweep of my team W/L predictions. My rookie picks look good as well. Mark Ingram likely won’t get it, but Cam Newton is a lock and Von Miller is in a tight race with Aldon Smith. He’s a more complete player so I expect him to win. That should put me up 10 more units.

Superbowl Pick

New England Patriots -3 (+100)
Bet 3.00 to win 3.00

I LOVE the Patriots and it’s a lock in my mind that they will win. The NFL likes to take advantage of storylines imo and there’s so many angles supporting the Patriots in this one. Here’s a look:

1. The Patriots are out for revenge! Yes, a re-match of what was dubbed the greatest Superbowl ever but now the Patriots are out to avenge their loss. The Giants ruined their perfect season. Want more revenge? The Giants beat the Patriots this year too. How often do the Patriots roll over and get beaten by teams twice in one season? I believe Brady/Belichick are 11-2 when facing a team they lost to earlier in the year.

2. The passing of Robert Kraft’s wife. They already mentioned it after the Pats won the AFCCG and I guarantee you it will be mentioned several times if the Pats do in fact win. The players could be playing harder just for him as well (though they should be playing hard anyways).

3. The Giants have nothing going for them. They made it this far but what is so intriguing about the Giants? Eli Manning? Many have already cemented his status as elite, he doesn’t need another Superbowl to prove it. I just can’t see another major storyline playing out if the Giants win.

4. The money is on the Giants. Just when you think all is going well, that’s when Vegas strikes. Nearly 2/3 bets are on the Giants +3 yet the line has stayed constant. Why? Because either a) Vegas is attracting more and more money on the Giants to capitalize even more, or b) The sharps (big players with inside info) are all on the Patriots. I’ve learned a lot of things over the years and one of them is that you can use Vegas to your advantage in many different ways. I think that applies here.

Now people love to point out that the Patriots defense is awful. That is true, but they’ve got some players back for their playoff run. Their secondary is still bad, but they made it this far with that group. Are the Giants really an elite offense that will tear them apart? I say no. They are definitely not on par with the Saints and Packers in that regard. While it is a weakness, it’s not going to be the deciding factor.

I may be wrong, but I doubt it. This just seems like a lock to me and is probably my favorite picks since the over on the Panthers win total.

Season Record: 49-49-5
Units: +0.65

Futures Record: 3-0
Units: +7.00

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Divisional Round NFL Picks

January 10, 2012 No comments

Was very successful in the first week of playoffs. Won both of my plays, as well as my picks of Denver covering the spread and the Saints winning outright. It gets a little bit tougher this week however, as the match-ups are much tighter.

Denver Broncos +14 (-106)
Bet 1.05 to win 1.00
0.50 on the moneyline to win 3.00

I LOVE the Broncos this week for a couple reasons. #1 They’ve got all the momentum now. They just took out the Steelers in a thrilling game in overtime. Meanwhile the Pats had a bye week which may have cooled them off a bit. #2 The Broncos are NOT over-matched against the Patriots. In fact, they were sticking with the Patriots in their previous meeting until some unfortunate fumbles. Had Denver limited those mistakes, the game would have been much closer. #3 Tebow is improving as a passer. He’s been much more accurate lately and now will have to face of against the worst secondary in the league. Even if New England gets out to an early lead (hasn’t been the case lately) they can beat them deep. #4 Playing the NFL story line here. How fitting is it that Tebow now travels to New England to get his revenge on both the earlier loss to this same team and now his old coach. Doesn’t it seem like this game is destined for Tebow to win? #5 Tim Tebow. Guy is magical.

Saints -190
Bet 1.90 to win 1.00

I’m not a Saints hater despite them being my Falcons biggest rival. I try to be as unbiased as possible. However, I can’t help but notice how many favorable calls the Saints get. They are another team the NFL wants to see do well. It’s not like it’s just the Saints though. The Patriots and Packers get calls go their way a lot as well.They got some really favorable calls go their way against the Lions and I can’t see why it would be any different now. Despite the 49ers being the #2 seed and playing at home, the Saints are the better team. One thing that I’m cautious of is the fact that this game is outdoors. The Saints are similar to the Falcons in that their offense isn’t as dominant outside on grass as they are in a dome (Titans game comes to mind). The 49ers just remind me of last years Falcons too much. They over-achieved to a 13-3 record in a weak division. They got a bye and this could hurt them. The 49ers don’t have a lot of playoff experience so they won’t be as focused with a week off. Meanwhile the Saints are hot right now. They are a powerhouse up there with the Packers who steam-rolled the Falcons last year. I can see the Saints doing the same thing to the 49ers.

As for the other 2 games. I like both home teams (Ravens and Packers) to win. In fact I’m very confident the Packers will win. However, I can see both of the underdogs covering the spread. More-so the Giants than the Texans, but both have legitimate shots at keeping it close.

Record: 49-47-5
Units: +4.10

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Week 17 NFL Picks

January 1, 2012 No comments

I’ll be cautious this week just because it’s the last week of the season and vegas knows much more about who is resting their starters than the public does. I’m also likely to take some teams that I think the NFL wants in the playoffs.

Texans Even
Bet 1.00 to win 1.00

The line has moved strongly in the Texans favor which leads me to believe that some of the sharps are on the Texans. The Titans are in a must-win game but they could easily choke it away. Wade Phillips is back as well so the Texans defense should be back to it’s usual ways.

Jaguars -3 (-110)
Bet 0.55 to win 0.50

The Jaguars suck, except MJD, he’s a beast. However, I think they win this game so the Colts get the #1 overall pick. If this was any other team I’d consider 2 units but with the Jaguars i could only muster up half a unit. I just can’t see the Colts not ending up with the #1 pick.

Broncos -2 (-110)
Bet 1.10 to win 1.00

I really think the NFL would benefit from Tim Tebow and the Broncos being in the playoffs. That would attract a lot of viewers and somehow these things always seem to happen. I don’t know, but just a hunch that Tim Tebow will be playing ball in January.

Cowboys +145
Bet 2.00 to win 2.90

If you believe that Vegas controls the outcomes of some games then you better be on the Cowboys today. They’ve taken the loss in some big games as they always seem to choke a win away. Well, now here’s there chance to be rewarded. Prime time, and “Americas Team” has a shot at making the playoffs by beating their rivals.

Record: 46-44-5
Units: +5.65

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