Tag Archive for Week 1

2012 NFL Picks: Week 1

It’s time for some regular season betting action. Last year was pretty successful as a I finished up over 14 units. I’m hoping to be more consistent with my week to week picks this year, but hey, anything can happen. Here are my plays to kickoff the season:

Bills +3 (-110)
Bet 2.20 to win 2.00

I am really struggling to come up with a reason as to why the Jets are favored in this game. The Bills are the better team and the Jets have been laughably bad in the pre-season. Sure it’s pre-season but the starters looked bad, I mean they barely scored a touchdown. This should be an easy win for the Bills but at the very least they’ll cover the 3 points.

Texans -8.5 (-110)
Bet 3.30 to win 3.00

Hurry and get on this before the odds-makers realize how bad the Dolphins are. The Texans should crush them easily. The Dolphins may be the worst team in the NFL at the moment and it shouldn’t be long before we start seeing spreads of 10 and 14 against them.

Lions -7 (Even)
Bet 2.00 to win 2.00

The Lions are a much more talented team than the Rams and they are at home in this contest. They should have no problem beating the Rams by a touchdown. How is St. Louis going to block one of the best front 7′s in football? Sam Bradford won’t have time to pick apart Detroit’s below average secondary and he’s a dink-and-dunk quarterback anyway.

Ravens -5.5 (-110)
Bet 1.10 to win 1.00

Some of these opening lines seem too easy. I’ll regret saying this after I blow all these picks but am I to believe that the Ravens can’t beat the Bengals at home by a touchdown? The Bengals are fake. They over-achieved last year and I don’t trust them. While the Bengals looked shaky in pre-season, the Ravens looked good. Notably, Joe Flacco and Torrey Smith looked like much improved players and I expect their good play to continue into the regular season.

Raiders +100
Bet 1.00 to win 1.00

I’ll take the Raiders straight up in the contest over the Chargers. The Raiders always come out with a lot of energy and they are healthy while the Chargers are dealing with some injuries. I don’t think Rivers is as great as he once was so it’s not like he can just take over the match-up. In fact, if there’s anyone that will take over this match-up it’s Darren McFadden. He’s easily one of the best backs in the league when healthy and the Chargers defense has some holes in it. I like the Raiders as long as McFadden is healthy and ready to go.

Closer to kickoff I’ll have my usual trend plays (backing public underdogs) that went 35-23-3 last year and 121-89-7 over the past 4 seasons.

Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em Week 1

I’ll be posting start ‘em sit ‘em each week just like last year. I’ll try to stay away from the obvious and post some of the more questionable match-ups. I also like to include a “sleeper of the week” which is typically a player that isn’t owned in most leagues that I feel can have a big impact that week.

Start ‘Em

QB – Matt Stafford vs. Bucs

Stafford should have no problem lighting up the Bucs defense.

QB – Matt Schaub vs. Colts

The Colts secondary still has a lot of question marks and Schaub usually thrives in games against the Colts.

RB – DeAngelo Williams vs. Cardinals

The Cardinals defense is pretty bad and DeAngelo should have a ton of running room to work with. He’s a must start this week.

RB – Tim Hightower vs. Giants

Not a great match-up on paper but Hightower has been great in pre-season. Redskins will run the ball a lot and Hightower will get a lot of work. Read more

Michigan vs. Western Michigan Scouting

David Molk – C – Michigan

Molk was solid in this game. He didn’t make many mistakes and was doing a good job of run blocking throughout the night. He did a really good job of isolating his defender away from the play and creating a running lane. He was doing this consistently throughout the game. I also liked that he played with really good leverage in short yardage situations. On 3 occasions when Michigan’s offense needed to pick up a yard for the 1st down or to score, Molk had very good blocks. At the goal line he was able to take out 2 defenders and clear the way for the TD. He wasn’t tested much in pass protection although he showed awareness to pick up blitzing players. He has a good anchor and rushers we’re stopped in their tracks once he planted that back leg. There was a couple of times where he was left blocking no one, which is never good to see. He looked very mobile when he was asked to pull on one play but he didn’t connect with anyone at the 2nd level. Overall a solid game and I was impressed with him.

Kevin Koger – TE – Michigan

I didn’t see much of Koger as a blocker so this is mainly only notes of him as a receiver. He’s definitely going to have trouble creating any separation in the NFL. He’s slow off the line and lacks burst and straight line speed. He did make one very nice catch as he went up to snag the high pass and then took a shot but managed to hold on. I’ll watch more him blocking next time.

Mike Martin – DT – Michigan

Mike Martin was very quiet in this game and I was a bit disappointed. Although, I must note that Martin was double teamed heavily by Western Michigan. He did get penetration a few times but was unable to make any plays in the back field. He played with good leverage for the most part but he was inconsistent there. He had a tough time getting off blocks although he did try a swim and rip move a couple of times with limited success.

Jordan White – WR – Western Michigan

Jordan White was once again Mr. Dependable for the Broncos on offense. White finished the game with 12 catches despite the game being called late in the 3rd quarter. He’s not much of a burner and you can see he lacks that top speed. He’ll probably run in the 4.5-4.6 range at the combine. He did show some suddenness when getting off the line of scrimmage which is good to see. He plays much bigger than his listed size at 6’0 215. After the catch he’s more of a power guy and would prefer to try to run defensive backs over or give them a mean stiff arm as opposed to dancing around. I don’t understand why he’s the teams punt returner as he is an awful fit for that job. Now let’s talk about his best attribute, his hands. Despite being targeted heavily by Alex Carder, White did not drop a single pass. He routinely caught the ball away from his body (he did let a couple into his pads though) and showed off his strong hands on a nice leaping grab over a Michigan defender. People will harp on him because of his poor 40 but this guy can flat out catch the football. He actually reminds me a lot of Jason Avant who has developed into a fine slot receiver for the Eagles.

Doug Wiggins – FS – Western Michigan

Wiggins play was rather poor in this game and I don’t think there is much of a chance he gets drafted. He got sucked in numerous times on play action and allowed receivers to get in behind him. He’s not a great tackler as he prefers to dive in uncontrollably rather than breaking down and making a good hit. On top of that he has some off the field concerns surrounding him so he’s not much of a prospect.

NFL Picks Week 1

Here are my NFL Picks for Week 1.

Lions +6.5(-110)
Bet 1.10 to win 1.00

Cardinals -3.5(Even)
Bet 3.00 to win 3.00

49ers -3(-120)
Bet 2.40 to win 2.00

Chargers -4.5(-110)
Bet 2.20 to win 2.00